Wednesday, November 3, 2010

How will the Mid-Term Elections Impact Immigration Enforcement and Reform?

Micheal E. Hill has put together a fantastic analysis of the 2010 mid-term elections as they affect immigration enforcement, and the likelihood of comprehensive immigration reform in the rest of the Obama Presidency.

He analyzes the following key factors that will directly impact potential immigration lawmaking in the immediate future:
  • Congressional Hispanic Caucus losses in the House.
  • Election of immigration restrictionist-oriented Hispanic Republicans.
  • Dramatic increase in the number of immigration restrictionists in the House.
  • Loss of key pro-immigrant Democrats in the House.
  • More difficult path to a bipartisan filibuster-proof immigration majority in the Senate.
  • Uncertainty about the makeup of the House Democratic Leadership.
  • Likely aggressive anti-immigrant agenda coming out of the House. 
As I have been predicting for quite some time, President Obama's broken campaign promise to address comprehensive immigration reform in his first year in office does not bode well for the prospect of immigration reform in the near or distant future.  The reality is that President Obama chose health-care reform over immigration reform.  We all must live with this choice that he made for us.  I do not anticipate that we will see any meaningful immigration reform until well after 2012.

Click here to read Mr. Hill's entire analysis.

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